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| | 24 MARINE REVIEW. ~ [Janie | NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MANUFACTURERS. THE ANNUAL ADDRESS OF PRESIDENT THEODORE C. SEARCH IS A FORCEFUL ¥ .ONE--NECESSITY FOR THE UP-BUILDING OF THE AMERICAN MERCHANT MARINE. | ° The sixth annual convention of the National Association of Manufac- turers is being held in Detroit during the present week. The address of the president, Theodore C. Search, of Philadelphia, was a masterful effort _and is given below in part. He said among many things: "We are living in an era of such momentous changes that it 's unsafe to hazard predictions of what is to come next. We have been accustomed heretofore to regard the past and present as a safe basis upon which to forecast events likely to, occur in the future. Within the past two years, however, we have witnessed such an overturning of prece- dents, such a procession of unexpected happenings in defiance of appar- cently well-founded prophecy that we are led naturally to the conclusion that a new era and a different order of things have come upon us within this. century. The accumulated experience of the past hundred years seems to avail but little in determining what may ot may not happen next in the progressive march of our country. The United States has ever 'been a surprise to the rest of the world in the century and a quarter that have -elapsed since the colonies began doing business on their own account. We have ever been credited with startling originality in the methods of our industry, our commerce and our politics, and. we have given many a rude shock to the established theories by which the world has attempted to measure our capabilities and to forecast our future. -. "With our entrance upon another century, however, surprise has become reactionary, and probably no people have been more astonished than ourselves at what we have accomplished, what we are now doing and what we are undertaking with entire confidence of success. Indus- trial enterprises are being conducted upon a scale of magnitude that would have appalled even the most imaginative minds of a few years ago; commercial operations have assumed proportions so far in excess of all precedents that we can find no basis for comparisons, while American transactions in finance have sharply shaken the -prestige of London as the world's money center. fe ' "A year ago all of us were straining our vision in efforts to foresee the future, to determine how far and how long these conditions of prosperity would continue: and the lapse of twelve months apparently has brought us no nearér to the point from which the end can be seen. There seems to be no waning of the general prosperity of the country, and conditions _that-could breed panics are not manifest as yet. An analysis of conditions 'the world over.shows many changes as compared with the situation at the beginning of last year,.and such a broad view is essential to a proper understanding of our own position and prospects; for we are no longer a. self-sufficient and independent nation, but our interests are closely interwoven. with the affairs of all the world. This broader dependence upon, other nations tends to greater stability in our industries and our commerce, for it is hardly conceivable that all countries could be affected similarly, and simultaneously by any depressing influences. "Thus, while Germany: may be suffering from reaction and conse- -quently buying less of our wares, South Africa is emerging from the troubles of war and China is being reopened gradually to trade: under -conditions of greater promise than ever seen before. While there was a 'shrinkage of nearly $10,000,000 in our exports of. raw cotton to Japan 'during the nine months ending March 31, 1901, there was an increase of -about $75,000,000 in the exports to Great Britain and Europe. At all times the markets of the world are undergoing some 'process of gradual readjustment; and the trade that is lost:to us in one country is made -good by the increasing demands of another. It was this wide distribution -of our foreign trade that made possible an increase of over $43,000,000 in the exports of manufactured products during the fiscal year which ended June 30, 1900, and a continuance of this enlarged volume of foreign busi- ness during the past nine months." To impress the magnitude of the export trade of the United States more forcibly upon the members of the association, Mr. Search presents from records of the treasury bureau of statistics a table which shows the 'growth of the total exports and the exports of manufactured articles from the United States since 1821, from which it is noted that our exports of manufactured products have increased in the past five years to the extent of $250,000,000 per annum out of a total increase in exports of about $577,000,000. The percentage of manufactures to total exports in 1900 was 31.65, against 23.14 in 1895, 17.87 in 1890, 12.48 in 1880, 12.76 in 1860, 12.85 in 1840, and 12.88-in 1821. Continuing, 'Mr. Search says: . PLEA FOR COMMERCIAL RECIPROCITY. "The most serious problem that now presents itself in relation to the -export trade of the United States concerns not only the further extension of this trade. but also_the preservation of the business already established. "Heretofore it has been comparatively easy for American manufacturers to secure foreign business whenever they have put forth serious effort to get it, . Emergencies of unusual activity in England and Germany, which have debarred manufacturers in those countries from aggressive compe- _ tition, have made it possible in many instances for American manufac- 'turers to secure with little effort orders which under ordinary conditions could have been taken only by a struggle. Then, again, American com- petition has not been regarded abroad as a very important factor in inter- _national trade by those who have encountered it. These conditions have changed very materially during the past year and will be altered still further in the near future. Instead of a free field and open markets we are likely to encounter obstacles that will hinder very seriously the further extension of our foreign trade and threaten that which is already | established. Decreasing industrial activity and declining prices in many 'lines, particularly in Germany and Great Britain, are making American _competition oppressive where its force was not felt when business was ) abundant for all. Europe has suddenly awakened, too, to a realization of ~the vast campetitive strength of the United States, and those who "formerly were..amused and entertained by American aggressiveness now ~.are alarmed by-our encroachment upon the markets which they have -- "yegarded as their own. All of this indicates that new conditions will be a Ne encountered and new problems will have to be:solyed in our, commercial relations with other nations. eign a, Baap a "GGA "The expansion of the territorial limits of the United States, has given rather a sharp wrench to our. governmental. organism, and_.the extension of the field of our commercial operations is likely, to give.a no less severe shock to the economic policy: which has made. possible the marvelous industrial and commercial development of .the .nation.., So long as it was necessary to consider only the needs ot the country, its industry and its commerce, it mattered not what other. nations thought or said of the American protective policy. That they. considered..as selfish what we deemed patriotic did not.concern.us. The practice of getting all that could be had and keeping all that was obtained. was emi- nently a proper principle upon which to proceed with the development of the nation's industries within the. limits of the domestic market. Having crossed the seas with goods to sell, and having begun a business that has amazed foreign competitors, we are confronted with new con- ditions, and we find: that the outer view of our economic policy differs somewhat from its appearance-on this side. A century of history -has demonstrated the marvelous efficiency of the protective policy for the creation of a great and prosperous industrial nation. Other nations, profiting by our experience, adopt the same policy and barriers rise to impede our commercical progress abroad.. "What shall we do under these conditions to' preserve our export trade and open the way for its further expansion? Shall we abandon our protective system and ask other nations to give us equally free admission to their markets? Not for a moment should-we consider such a step. It would be neither safe, expedient nor practical in accomplishing the desired purpose. If Germany seeks industrial advancement through a protective policy, far be it from us to object to the fullest enjoyment by others of that which has given us so great prosperity. If Russia under- takes to plant factories throughout her vast domains, we should: be: the last to criticize her adoption of the methods that have proved so: suc- cessful here. 'Conditions which now confront us in our foreign trade present the opportunity and impose upon us the duty of readjusting our commercial relations with other countries upon 'such a basis as_ shall insure freer intercourse without any sacrifice of material interests by either party. To put it in a word, reciprocity is the one factor that is of the utmost value to us in the present stage of our export trade. 'For twelve years past, ever since James G. Blaine attempred to bring the nations of the two Americas into closer union by the application of this principle, reciprocity has been a favorite topic of discussion by econo- mists and business men as well. Belief in the potency 'of this principle, however, has been based more upon: prophecy than upon experience; -but now. as never before do we see plainly before us conditions 'which: call for the immediate practical application: of commercial reciprocity. We see industrial Germany aroused and alarmed. by the encroachment 'of American competition, not in foreign neutral markets, but in the midst of the empire where our manufacturers have been selling their machinery and products as never before. "We see Russia: incensed because her friendly efforts to secure -commercial courtesies. in return for valuable concessions extended to us have been cavalierly ignored and.-great injus- tice done to her. France has waited patiently for nearly two years to-give us abundant time to consider propositions touching mutual trade con- cessions; but even such courteous forbearance hardly may: be expected to continue without end. Even Austria and Switzerland, of: less: im- portance to us from a commercial standpoint,-are expressing with much emphasis their dissatisfaction with our national policy which: seeks to obtain all possible trade advantages and yet is unwilling to concede any favors in return. a tes age "To my mind there is no more important work to which the National Association of Manufacturers can apply its.energy and influence in the immediate future than an effort to induce the senate of the United States to give favorable consideration to treaties .of commercial reci- procity submitted for approval by that body. The position in which the people of the United States find themselves is humiliating. After reit- erated expressions of desire for reciprocity treaties, after the added emphasis given to these requests. by successive presidential messages, and even after the creation of special machinery within the department of state for the negotiation of such international agreements, we find all of these efforts made of no effect by the refusal of the senate to give con- sideration to the treaties presented for ratification. And the special pleni- potentiary of the state department abandons his work and' resigns' his office because of the evident futility of the undertaking. Here isa prob- lem which can well command our most serious attention and our most determined efforts. The continuance and further extension of our: mag- nificent export trade in manufactured products depends more upon our willingness to barter privileges with our. foreign 'customers than upon any other influence that we can discern at the present time... We can yield much that will be of value to others without :causing loss or injury to our own interests. If we are not willing and able to adopt sucha policy we must expect not only the loss of privileges we now enjoy but also open retaliation as a punishment for our selfishness. "As the first practical step let us urge the senate to ratify the treaty of commercial reciprocity with France, so long delayed, so repeatedly postponed, but still alive. True it is not an ideal measure, so far as its provisions are known to us, but I believe it to be vastly better than noth- ing and a step in the right direction. It is better for ws to have this treaty put into operation, trusting to an agreement embodying everything any- body desires with the subsequent amendments to remedy its defects; than to insist upon probability that it will be lost it its entirety. Something is always better than nothing, and it is wiser' to take what we: can" get than to ask for too much and get nothing. There is need for vigorous and continued effort to bring about the practical application of the prin- ciples of reciprocity in our commercial intercourse with other nations." _ President Search reviewed at length the commercial complications which caused Russia to place a tariff upon American steel products. 'The difficulties with Russia give additional emphasis, he said, to arguments in behalf of reciprocity. Extended reference to the subject 'was due largely to the important part which the: National Association of Manu- facturers has taken in efforts to adjust the difficulties, Legislative: work of the association is also referred to.at. considerable tength,. and ...Mr. Search asks the members to remember that visible results do.not,measure the extent or efficiency of this, work. Every legislative. measure .which