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Bright Future for American Ips Annual Address of President of Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers Contains Masterly Summary of Shipping Situation an ardent few organized the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers, though at times, most of the time indeed, has_ it seemed that never would American ship building come into its own. We have seen moderate ship building booms flourish for a short time and then wither to such proportions that ship building establishments were fortunate to have the building of cars, water-wheels, water-works and other manufactures for the land and gov- ernment navy work that they might live. We have seen within the past 12 years at least half of our large ship building companies in the hands of receivers or reorganization commit- tees.. We have also seen several yards starting with great promise but end- ing in disaster. Through these periods of alternate exaltation and depres- sion, members of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers have retained their faith that some day the requirements of their country would change these conditions, and that there would arise such a demand for an American merchant marine that there would be no faltering in the future. It was not foreseen, however, that Europe would be almost entirely en- gaged in the fiercest war of history, bringing about unbelievable condi- tions with which our own government or citizens had nothing to do, for they are innocent of causing or participat- ing in the frightful destruction of life -and property that at present appalls the world. These conditions have brought to us the long looked for opportunity to build up our own marine commerce (as well as that of other neutral coun- tries), and there is no reason for not availing ourselves to the utmost of this opportunity. iz DOES not seem 24 years since What Statistics Show. This address promises to be mainly one of statistics. Many sources have been examined to determine the prob- able facts. It has been extremely dif- ficult to obtain exact results, but a careful consideration of all of the sources warrants the figures given here in round numbers, and these fig- ures though perhaps not exact in themselves, do present conditions with sufficient. accuracy to justify placing them on the record. The year 1909 with a production of 1,602,057 tons represents low tide and the year 1913 with 3,332,882 tons the high tide, therefore the five-year period, 1910-1914 inclusive, fairly rep- resents the average annual production of the ship yards of the world. This average was 2,740,000 tons gross. Of this amount the United Kingdom launched about 60 per cent, or 1,650,000 tons; Germany launched about 12 per cent, or 330,000 tons; the United States launched 9% per cent, or 253,- 000 tons; France launched 4% per cent, or 121,000 tons, and all other countries, including Great Britain’s colonies and Canada, launched about 14 per cent, or 385,000 tons. Nearly 50,000,000 Tons of Ships In the year ending June 30, 1915, the entire tonnage of the merchant vessels of the world amounted to 49,- 262,000 tons. The United Kingdom owned 43.5 per cent, or 21,300,000 tons; the United States owned about 12 per cent, or 5,900,000 tons; Ger- many owned 10 per cent, or 5,000,- 000 tons; and France owned less than 5 per cent, or 2,300,000 tons. Taking the greatest tonnage of merchant vessels launched by any nation in any one year of all the years 1899 and including 1915, and combining the figures and we have a fair estimate of the capacity of the world’s ship yards. These figures give a total capacity of 3,685,000 tons per year, of which the United Kingdom, colonies and Canadian lake ports launched 54 per cent, or 1,984,000 tons; the United States coasts 14.6 per cent, or 540,000 tons; Germany 12.4 per cent, or 465,000 tons; and all other countries 19 per cent, or 696,000 tons. In 1914 the building of merchant vessels was reduced by the European war to a minimum in all countries, the nations at war turning their at- tention almost entirely to the con- struction of war vessels or munitions, while in the neutral nations it seemed as though marine as well as all other merchant business had come to an end; but in the last two years there has come on us a mighty change. 12 By Stevenson Taylor The destruction of some as well as the interning of the remaining merchant vessels of the Teutonic Allies; the commandeering of others by both ‘sides, and the great destruction of merchant vessels of all nations, in- cluding neutrals, amounting now to 5,000,000 tons, has so reduced the num- ber of available ocean ships that in order to transport the immense pur- chases of Europe and to furnish other ocean transportation there has arisen a demand never before seen for old as well as new ships, for anything indeed that could be used for ocean service. : The result has been that in the United States especially every vessel afloat, some extremely old, but every one available for the service, has greatly increased in value; every ship yard has been filled with orders for approximately two years and many new yards have been established for building steel vessels; many old yards that built wood ships have been re- suscitated and many new yards also started for building wooden vessels. We are today, in our own country, in the midst of a ship-building boom unequaled in history. It is to be re- membered that command or freedom of the seas, depending on the point of view, is one of the very important causes of the war abroad and that whatever may happen on land, at least Great Britain, Germany, France and Japan have the intention of be- ing prepared, the first to hold and better if possible, its present superior position, and the others to increase the value of theirs while the United States must now, if ever, regain its once formidable place on the seas of the world. There must naturally from these conditions come a great competition which will enlist all of the skill and efficiency of every nation having a merchant marine. A Forecast of the Future What is the condition today of the merchant fleets and what will be the tonnage requirements and the capacity of the world’s ship yards in 1918? We have seen that the greatest pro- duction (the measure of capacity) of the world’s yards up to 1915 was 3,687,000 tons. We estimate that in the year 1918 the capacity of the