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nr IIIT qe eT RE CR pUviutt lor } VE ) HLT ( I ! HOTTA VOL. 47 CLEVELAND NOVEMBER, 1917 NEW YORK No. 11 Ousencas Marine of 9.000.000 Tons Promised by End of 1918—In Peace Times, This Fleet Could Carry 60 Per Cent of American Commerce HE war so thoroughly dominates the industrial life of the country at the present time that epochal changes in commercial practices, although occurring almost daily, pass unnoticed. The immediate purpose of these changes is clear, that is, the winning of the war. The ultimate effect is hidden in obscurity. The lack of any precedent to which to:cling contributes to the indecision with which the future is faced. But the serious and sincere desire ‘to bring victory to this country’s arms robs this indecision of the terror which such a mental condition normally inspires. An excellent illustration of the revolutionary char- acter of these changes is furnished by the article, presented in one of the succeeding pages of this issue, in which the government reveals the details of its merchant shipbuilding plans. The foreign trading merchant marine of the United States, one month before the first shot was fired in the European war, barely exceeded one and one-half million tons. At the end of 1918, government offi- cials predict that our merchant fleet available for overseas trading will total more than nine million tons. Beating the Record of a Century In the preceding 100 years, our foreign trading merchant marine had measured its yearly growth by a few thousand tons, its monthly growth by hun- dreds. The actual record shows that American ships registered in foreign trade in the 100 years preceding the opening of the war, had increased from 800,000 tons to 1,000,000 tons. In the intervening years, of course, this overseas tonnage had for a time reached a much higher level. Ten years before the Civil war, it was close to 4,000,000 tons. The decline of our foreign trading marine after the Civil war had brought the total in 1910 to a level below that of 100 years earlier. In the next four years a sufficient improvement set in to give 1914 a total 200,000 tons greater than in the corresponding year of the previous century. Against an average monthly gain in that 385 century of 200 tons, we are assured now of an aver- age monthly gain in four and one-half years of armed neutrality and of war, of 140,000 tons. The government’s announcement does not take into account any prospective losses from submarines during the period the shipbuilding program is being carried out. The figure includes a large number of requisi- tioned ships which were contracted for by foreigners. The final ownership of these ships will have to be determined by negotiations through diplomatic chan- nels. All of the ships may not be completed by the end of next year, as Washington officials predict. But liberal allowance for losses through submarines, through surrender to original foreign owners and through delays in completing contracts, still leaves a foreign trading merchant marine that will make this country more nearly independent of foreign ship- owners than at any time during the last half century. A Factor in World Trade The National Foreign Trade council was authority for the statement made a year ago that from 6,000,000 to 10,000,000 tons of steamers of various sizes and types would be necessary to carry 60 per cent of the trade of the United States. This assertion was based on the premise that with a merchant marine of that size, this country would inevitably be drawn into general world trade which would require the services of a portion of our ships. The government’s state- ment shows that the maximum estimate of the trade council is to be approximated within a year, with congressional sanction already given for another 5,000,000 tons to be built in 1918 and 1919, This marvellously rapid expansion of our terol marine is of inestimable importance to all American - industries. Lloyd George’s war cry of “ships, ships and more ships” was raised years ago by those who sought to arouse this country to the need of an ade- quate merchant marine. The present assurance of plenty of American ships arouses even greater satis- faction since it comes at a time when the country’s industrial life is being refashioned almost daily.