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96 the crutch out from under us and once more stand firmly on our own feet.” A recent tour of German, ports con- firms this statement. The only ships in which the Germans have any real interest are those that fly the German flag. The alliance with certain Ameri- can shipping interests is apparently a temporary marriage of convenience. It behooves the American companies in- terested in these combinations to make the most of them while they last. For German shipping is coming back. Ger- man steamers are once more seen in the ports of the world, and the song of the riveting hammer is again vibrant along the North sea coast. The re- naissance of the German mercantile mar- ine is one of the outstanding phenomena of the past year. Brilliant By Contrast Against the complete eclipse of 1919, German shipping activity again shines brilliantly. The contrast between pres- ent conditions and those of two years ago is startling, so startling in fact that it is easy to over-rate the situation and exaggerate the revival which has taken place. It tis true that much has been accomplished. The entire German fleet today of about 575,000 tons is about a third of the prewar tonnage owned by the Ham- burg-American line alone. Where. there were ten German ships seas in, 1913, today but one plows its solitary way. ‘In five years, says the level headed director general of the Hamburg-American, Dr. Wilhelm Cuno, there will be three or four German ships where there is one today, but still only a third as many as before the war. This means commendable progress tend- ing toward world stability and business recovery, but it does not mean _ that Germany is going to work any such miracle as German propagandists would want one to believe. Nor does the future course of German shipping lie exclusively through zones of fair weather. Tilhere are a few storms brewing. Ger- man shipping is going to recover but it is not destined to dominate, nor is it going’ to achieve even a_ secondary position without a struggle and a few setbacks now and then. Germans are courageous, able and energetic business men, but they are no more omnipotent in the commercial sphere in 1922 than they were in the military arena seven years ago. However, a few unvarnished facts should afford the best medium for set- -ting forth the present situation in Ger- man shipping. In 1913 there were 4935 oceangoing ships under the German flag with an aggregate tonnage of 5,240,000 gross. Since then about 4700 vessels , the immediate future. on the *high® MARINE REVIEW of 5,000,000 tons were either lost in the ordinary way, destroyed in the war, seized in foreign harbors or surrendered according to the peace treaty. Every ship over 1600 tons ,;wwas given up and half those under this figure, together with a large amount of dock and harbor equipment, such as floating cranes, etc. Not Up to Prewar Speed The result was that in 1920 the German merchant fleet was reduced to abou: 200 small vessels, suitable for trading only in the Baltic, ‘with an aggregate’ ton- nage of around 200,000. In the past two years, this fleet has been more than doubled and today stands at about 575,000 gross tons distributed among about 350 vessels. The average size of the ships is still small but is rapidly rising, most of the current construc- tion being confined to ships between 7500 and 12,000 ‘tons each. Before the war the average monthly capacity of German shipyards was about 70,000 gross tons. In 1919 the actual construction dropped to 2000 tons a ‘month. In 1920 it recovered to 20,000 tons, and in 1921 to 42,000 tons. Tihe rate of new ship construction does not seem likely to go above this figure in It ts held down below prewar capacity by the raw ma- terial situation. This leads directly back to the German blast furnaces and rolling mills. They are producing at only about 50 or 60 per cent of ca- pacity, due to tthe coke situation and the necessity for importing large ton- nages of foreign ore which must be paid for with marks worth half a cent apiece. The collapse of the mark also makes it extremely difficult for German shipyards to purchase foreign steel, even if the owners were disposed to take this course. So the German shipbuild- ing industry is limited by the supply of steel, coal and other factors to about half capacity. During 1921, Germany launched 242 vessels of 509,064 gross tons. What Will Be Done This Year So it is probable that German ship- yards will not build much more than half a million tons of new ships _ this year. Of this, under the treaty, 200,000 tons must be surrendered to the allies. But with idle tonnage in every port in Europe and British shipyards on a 25 per cent basis, this claim is not likely to be enforced in the future any more than it was last year when half the tonnage was remitted. Tihereforé, assuming 100,000 ‘tons surrendered, and taking account of losses and deprecia- tion, as well as building for foreign account, the German mercantile marine will probably be augmented in 1922 by about 300,000 tons, bringing the aggre- * March, 1922 gate by the end of the year up to well over three-quarter million gross tons. Although an increment of 300,000 tons this year represents a much more modest achievement ‘than is indicated by the boasting of the pan-Germans, it will probably fully meet the necessities of the situation. Not only is there a limit to the speed with which German ship- ping may be redeveloped, but being es- sentially an international business, it feels the recession in the world’s trade just like the shipping of every other nation. Boom Days Are Vanishing Just as in iron and steel and other lines, the feverish boom which charac- terized German shipping and _ shipbuild- ing in the Jatter part of 1921 now shows signs of abating. The reaction resulting from unlimited currency inflation is being felt here as elsewhere through- out the German business fabric. Buyers see deflation ahead and a chance per- haps to get cheaper ships later on. So they are no longer falling over each other for the purpose of placing orders with the shipyards regardless of price. Wages in the shipyards too are show- ing a tendency to get out of hand. In 1920, five marks an hour was the rule for skilled men. Last summer it had risen to eight marks. Then it became 10, later rose to 12, and is now between 15 and 18 marks an hour. (nm Niovember 64 marks a day represented about 20 cents; today (January) 120 marks rep- reserits 65 cents, so the gold value of German wages has been increasing late- ly even faster than the paper value. As a result of all this inflation, with labor at 15 marks an hour and_ ship plates at 5000 marks a ton, equivalent to 1.25 cents a pound, the cost of build- ing ships in Germany has advanced tre- mendously in the past few months, particularly since the middle of October. Not long ago it was reported in tthe United States that the Germans were building ships for 7000 marks a_ ton, or about $22 at that time. It is doubt- ful if their costs ever were that low at any time last year, and early in 1922 a figure of 10,000 marks, or $55 a ton would more nearly represent the facts. Vessels which Germany builds this year will cost her. almost as much as those constructed in other countries. There is certainly not at the present time the wide margin between cost of construction in Germany and Great Brit- ain or the United States that has been talked about recently. In fact, the gap between German shipyard costs and those of the other leading manitime nations is tending to become narrower rather than the reverse. The indemnity which the German